Thursday, July 22, 2021

The Numbers No Longer Mean Much

Well, here we are again in the throes of ``Phase 2 (Heightened Alert)''. It has happened, with a provided last date of Aug 18. The case numbers have always been meaningless for the man-on-the-street for the simple reason that it does not take into account the context in which any single individual may be in, i.e. just because there are 160+ reported cases does not mean that the risk of any single person contracting COVID-19 is raised proportionately. The numbers are reported mostly because they are easy to derive (a very important property of any sort of chosen statistic), and that there is inertia to maintain a similar statistic so as to make use of past data.

I don't necessarily agree with the last part, but it is one of those compromises that needs to be taken to ensure some level of transparency in public policy making. Personally, I think that using the wrong statistic for making decisions is probably worse than apparently using none (this is how using some other kind of undisclosed statistic look like to outsiders), but I can understand the pressure that the policy makers for this crisis are facing from the public eye. Empathy aside though, I still maintain that if they want to project data-driven superiority as their technocratic credentials, then they ought to do as they preach and use the right statistic for what they are claiming will be the indicator variable for treating COVID-19 as an ``endemic disease''.

Well, today's a short entry. I could have written a rant about equal opportunity against equal outcome in the context of the anger that non-typical musicians have when concert flute makers don't seem to give a damn about their existence, but the heart really isn't in it---it's been one helluva hot-ass day. I spent more time with my Blademaster in Grim Dawn, and will probably get back to reading tomorrow, starting on White Fang by Jack London.

That's it for now. Till the next update.

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